Ethnic population projections for the UK and local areas, 2011-2101: A second chance to get them right

This paper outlines a model for projecting the ethnic group populations of local authorities in the United Kingdom (UK). The NewETHPOP projection model includes twelve ethnic groups, harmonised between the 2001 and 2011 censuses in England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. A native/foreign born classification is added because of its importance to fertility and mortality and international migration are included in a set of migration model variants. The assumptions for the demographic components are obtained by combining time series models along and expert judgements based on the data observed from 2001 to 2014. The principal projection is constrained to the national and sub-national population projections produced by the three national statistical offices in the UK. Finally, the importance of ethnic projections are demonstrated with a set of sensitivity scenarios. Philip Rees is Professor Emeritus at the School of Geography, University of Leeds in the United Kingdom.